I got this.........

Yesterday's post discussed what an error prone species humans are.  Today, I want to talk about another lowest common denominator of our species, overconfidence.

Confidence is a good thing.  It allows us to approach new challenges, to try new things and meet new people.

Overconfidence is a dangerous thing,  It allows us to take unacceptable risks, because we believe we have the capability to manage those risks.

Most people mistakenly believe that if they take a risk, and do not suffer an immediate negative consequence, it is because they "managed" the risk.  Let's use a concrete example.

A person exceeds the speed limit on the highway.  They don't have an accident, and they don't get a ticket.  So now they believe that they can "safely" speed.  Each successive time the individual exceeds the speed limit and does not suffer an immediate negative consequence, their confidence in their ability to speed successfully increases.  As long as there is no need to stop suddenly, this overconfident behavior can continue forever.

The problem with this is, physics are physics.  The distance it takes to stop a moving object is relational to the speed the object is traveling, and the weight of the object.

Here is the equation for total stopping distance:


(from Wikipedia)

If you can do this math in your head, correctly while driving, you confidently know how fast you can drive and still have time to stop.  Otherwise, overconfidence is in play.  Speed limits are established so that you don't have to do the math.   Yes, they are based on probabilities that may or may not be true at every given moment, but they are the best guideline available.

There is a great book titled "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.  One of the great concepts that I took from the book is understanding whether you are creating success, or simply enjoying success.   Most of us take credit for our successes, believing that we did something to be successful.  Often, it is simply random.  So if you cannot concretely state what you did to achieve success, it may be accidental.

Success breeds overconfidence.  There are laws of the universe that a human can't mitigate.  Understand your limits.  Be confident, but recognize your limitations.  The consequences of overconfidence can be tremendous harm to you or others.  Try to analyze your successes so that you truly know the difference between creating success or enjoying success.  It could save your life.